UK Energy Market Update: 9 November 2026

Gas prices fell sharply last week, ending five weekly rises in a row. The December 2026 NBP contract settled at 212.25p per therm on Friday 6 November, down 17.6% from the 257.60p it settled at a week earlier. European gas fell by about 15% over the same week, its steepest weekly drop in more than a year and a half, according to Investing.com, citing Reuters.

Why prices fell

Oil led the move. The US midterm election result on 3 November prompted markets to reassess the likelihood of de-escalation on Iran. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since 7 October and settled at $98.32 on Friday, down about 13% on the week, according to Bloomberg. That was its biggest weekly percentage fall since 2022, and prices swung within a $19 range along the way. Bloomberg also reported that the US and Iran were moving closer to a breakthrough, with Tehran showing some flexibility on aspects of its nuclear programme. Gas followed as the risk premium came out of the market.

No deal yet

On Sunday, Trump told CNN that renewed strikes on Iran were highly unlikely as long as talks make progress. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a resolution didn't appear close, and both sides reported vessels hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines. No comprehensive agreement has been reached.

Supply risks haven't gone away

EU gas storage peaked at about 75% full on 27 October and has been falling since. It was 73.4% on 5 November, the lowest for that date since GIE records began in 2011, according to bne IntelliNews, with daily withdrawals setting records for the date on several days.

Norway added to the pressure on 4 November, when a fire in an electrical room shut Equinor's Visund platform. That took about 13.2 million cubic metres a day, roughly 3.7% of Norway's export capacity, off the market. Gassco's schedule has it back on 16 November, but the date is subject to revision. Prices have come down, but the supply picture remains exposed to disruption.

What this means for your business

Cornwall Insight's forecast of £1,999 a year for a typical household, up 16%, dates from 30 September and hadn't been updated at the time of writing. That's a household forecast, not a forecast of business energy costs. Ofgem's cap doesn't apply to business contracts, but wholesale market movements also influence the prices suppliers offer businesses. Ofgem confirms the January cap by 25 November.

A pullback is a good moment to look at your position calmly, rather than react to the next swing. Check how much of your usage is still open to the market and what price you'd be comfortable fixing at.

What we're watching next

• Whether the Qatar-mediated US and Iran talks lead to a signed deal

• Tanker incidents and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz

• Visund's restart, scheduled for 16 November

• The pace of EU storage withdrawals through the winter

• The Met Office outlook, which points to temperatures near or above average for much of November, with colder spells possible

• Ofgem's January price cap announcement, due by 25 November

Has the pullback changed your plans, or are you waiting to see where prices settle? Tell us in the comments.