UK Energy Market Update: 2 November 2026

UK gas climbed to its highest level since December 2022 last week. The December 2026 NBP contract, the UK's front-month benchmark, settled at 257.60p per therm on Friday 30 October. That was up about 10% on the week. Separately, Trading Economics' UK gas price, a contract for difference that tracks the NBP benchmark, was near 252p on Monday, more than a third higher than a month earlier.

Europe's benchmark, Dutch TTF, broke through €100 per megawatt hour on Wednesday 28 October for the first time since 2022, and ING says it settled above that level. That is roughly three times its level before the Iran war began in late February.

Several pressures hit at once

ING pointed to a mix of factors behind the move: disrupted Gulf LNG flows, outages in Norway and colder weather forecasts. On LNG, QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on deliveries to Italy's Edison to the end of December, up from early December. Edison says 38 cargoes, about 5 billion cubic metres of gas, are now affected, and it has replaced 27 of them. ING reports that several other buyers are affected too. Equinor expects Europe and Asia to compete for cargoes, especially if the weather turns cold.

Storage has all but stopped filling

EU gas storage was around 75% full on 28 October, roughly 15 percentage points below the five-year average, according to GIE data. That is barely higher than the 74.6% recorded ten days earlier, so filling has all but stopped. Equinor's chief executive told Reuters that storage is at its lowest for this time of year since 2011.

High prices are also starting to bite. ING notes early signs of demand destruction, with some European chemical producers already cutting their gas use.

Iran talks lift hopes, but there's no deal

Brent crude fell about 3% on Monday to around $110 a barrel, from $113.43 at Friday's settlement, as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third day of talks aimed at ending the war. Iran's foreign minister said a Qatari-mediated "two-day plan" could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of an agreement with Washington. No conclusion has been reached, and Tehran says the US must meet its conditions first. One analyst warned that rhetoric could escalate after the US midterm elections on 3 November, which could push Brent towards $120.

What this means for your business

Cornwall Insight's January price cap forecast of £1,999 a year, up 16% for a typical household, was published on 30 September, before most of this rise. Some supplier forecasts, including British Gas's, have since gone above £2,100. These are household forecasts, not forecasts of business energy costs. Ofgem's cap doesn't apply to business contracts, but the same wholesale prices feed into them. Ofgem confirms the January cap by 25 November.

If you've got a renewal coming up, check how much of your usage is still open to the market and what price you'd be comfortable fixing at. Waiting for a dip hasn't paid off this autumn.

What we're watching next

• The US midterm elections on 3 November, and any move on Iran afterwards

• Whether the Iran, Qatar and US talks lead to a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz

• QatarEnergy's force majeure and LNG arrivals into Europe

• Norwegian outages and when flows recover

• Cold weather forecasts and the first storage withdrawals of winter

• Ofgem's January price cap announcement, due by 25 November

Are you locking in now, or waiting to see what the midterms bring? Tell us in the comments.