UK Energy Market Update: 19 October 2026

UK gas just had a third weekly rise in a row. The UK NBP wholesale gas contract was trading around 213p per therm on Friday 16 October, up about 5.3% on the week. The Dutch TTF front-month futures contract was trading around €86.10 per megawatt hour, up almost 6%. Both benchmarks were near their highest levels since late 2022.

Friday itself was calmer, helped by milder weather forecasts. But the reasons behind the climb haven't gone away, and they're coming from two directions at once.

LNG supply is still under pressure

Attacks on shipping around the Gulf continue to disrupt LNG supplies. The impact is already being felt in Europe. QatarEnergy has told Italian energy company Edison it won't deliver cargoes until at least the first half of December, and Edison says it has no visibility beyond that. Edison has been replacing much of the missing supply with US LNG bought on the spot market. That leaves European buyers competing for available cargoes as winter approaches.

Norway had a difficult week too

Reduced processing capacity at Norway's Kårstø plant cut the amount of pipeline gas available to Western Europe earlier in the week. This added further pressure at a time when LNG supplies were already disrupted.

Storage is the gap that matters

EU gas storage was around 74% full in mid-October, roughly 15 percentage points below the five-year average, according to GIE data. Europe is heading into winter with a thinner storage buffer than usual. Mild weather may ease demand in the short term, but a cold snap or another supply disruption could put fresh pressure on prices.

Trump's Russia move adds another layer of uncertainty

On 16 October, Donald Trump waived certain new sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy under the Graham Act, a move that could allow more Russian fuel to reach global markets. Brent crude slipped on Monday after settling at a five-month high on Friday, but the impact remains uncertain. Continued attacks on shipping in the Gulf are still disrupting supplies, and any increase in Russian exports will depend on whether the fuel can actually be produced and delivered. For UK businesses, the development is worth watching, although it does not directly resolve the pressures affecting European gas and LNG markets.

What this means for your business

The gas market is still pricing in risks that go well beyond this week's weather. Electricity prices can face similar pressure because gas-fired generation often helps set wholesale power prices.

If you've got a renewal in the next few months, now is a good time to look at where you stand. Check how much of your usage is still exposed to the market, decide what price fits your budget and risk tolerance, and compare contract options early rather than leaving it until your contract end date forces the issue.

What we're watching next

• Whether LNG shipping and deliveries become more predictable

• How quickly Norwegian processing capacity returns to normal

• European storage levels and colder-weather forecasts

• Whether Russian fuel exports actually increase after the US waiver

• NESO's full Winter Outlook for 2026/27

• Ofgem's January price cap announcement, due by 25 November

Are you waiting for a drop before you fix, or have you already locked in? Tell us in the comments.